Ohio State's quarterback crisis is real, but USC's upset case is thinner

Can a team survive losing its starting quarterback for the season and still walk into the Coliseum as the favorite? Ohio State is about to find out, and the answer, in our view, is yes. It will not be pretty, though.

Here is the setup. The No. 2 Buckeyes (6-1) visit the Trojans (6-2) tonight. Julian Sayin left the Indiana game two weeks ago with an injury, and The Big Lead reports that Ryan Day said Ohio State is preparing to play without him for the rest of the season. Freshman Luke Fahey is expected to make his first collegiate start. Meanwhile, CBS Sports notes that USC already has two losses and cannot afford a third if it wants to stay in the playoff conversation.

The upset story is better as a narrative than as a plan

The case for USC is easy to write. A first-time starter, a home crowd and a quarterback in Jayden Maiava whose intermediate throws ESPN's betting desk flags as a big key to an upset. Fahey's résumé is also thin: 9-of-13 for 203 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions this season. Two picks in 13 attempts is the kind of number that makes a defensive coordinator smile.

But look at what USC brings. Last week the Trojans lost 24-7 at Wisconsin, and the details are ugly. According to CBS Sports' Iowa-Wisconsin preview, USC entered averaging 36.4 points and was held to seven, with negative rushing yardage, five sacks and two interceptions. An offense that gets erased like that does not suddenly become a wrecking ball against the No. 2 team in the country. Maybe it was one bad night. We would not bet the house on it.

There is also the schedule. Ohio State had a bye, so the Buckeyes have had extra time to build a plan around Fahey. USC played a week ago and, in our view, has little to lean on but frustration. A bye week is not a magic wand, but with a first-time starter it probably matters more than usual.

Jeremiah Smith is the great equalizer

A freshman quarterback is a problem. A freshman quarterback throwing to arguably the best player in college football is a much smaller one. The Big Lead calls Jeremiah Smith exactly that and describes the receiving corps as great. It also points out that USC allows 216 passing yards per game, which ranks No. 14 in the Big Ten. In our view, that is a soft target for a quarterback who mostly needs easy answers.

The real worry is the ground game. The same report says Ohio State has struggled to run the ball this season, and that Fahey will probably have to stretch the defense to get things moving. That is the honest weak spot. If the Buckeyes cannot run, they put the game on a first-time starter's arm, and that is exactly where USC wants it.

Take Ohio State, but respect the number

The spread sits at 6.5 points, and SportsLine's model has Ohio State covering in 57% of simulations. That is a lean, not a lock. A CBS Sports preview writer says it is tough to ask Ohio State to go on the road and cover a touchdown with a first-time starter at quarterback, and avoids the spread altogether. That feels like the sane position. We think the Buckeyes win, but a close, ugly game is entirely possible, and the margin is where the risk lives.

What does the game tell us about the playoff race? A lot, probably. If Ohio State wins with Fahey, the Buckeyes show they have a floor that survives the loss of their quarterback, which is exactly what a selection committee would want to see. If USC wins, its season is revived and the Buckeyes have a real problem. And if the Trojans lose, a third loss would likely end their argument.

Our verdict: Ohio State wins, the quarterback question stays open, and USC's best path is a turnover-fueled game that Fahey's numbers suggest is possible but not likely. Pick the Buckeyes to win. If you want to play the spread, wait and see how the first quarter treats the freshman.